I’ve long admired Slate Star Codex and his annual process of predictions and calibration. I respect that he puts himself out there, that he gives precise, measurable predictions, and that he assesses the quality of his predictions at the end of the year. Unlike most pundits, he makes clear predictions that can be verified or falsified by year end. It’s wonderfully Tetlock-ian. There’s no squishiness.
I’ve always wanted to do that myself, but I’ve always been so busy around the end of the year that I have not had time to do it. This year, I’m not traveling for the holidays, so I have a little more time. No more excuses; it’s time for me to give it a go.
The goal here is not to be over-confident or under-confident. The goal is for these predictions is to be accurate. We’ll revisit at year-end to see how I do.
With some trepidation, here’s my first attempt at annual predictions. All predictions are accompanied by an estimated probability.
National and International Affairs
- There will be no recession in 2019 in the United States. 80%
- Rather than a full Brexit, the UK and the EU will agree to some version of a “punt,” that allows the parties to delay the invocation of Article 50 to leave the EU. 60%.
- If the UK does not agree to punt on Brexit, the country will have at least one quarter of negative GDP in 2019. 60%
- There will no major antitrust action in the United States against Facebook, Google, or Amazon. 90%
- There will be no major legislation in the United States that will be substantially limit the growth or business prospects of Facebook, Google, or Amazon. 80%
- Donald Trump will not be impeached in 2018. 80%
- Donald Trump will still be president on January 1st, 2020. 95%
- The Chevron standard for deference to administrative agency interpretations of law will be substantially revised or overturned by the Supreme Court in 2019. 60%
- Other than the UK, no other nation will leave the EU. 90%
- The Mueller investigation will be finished by January 1, 2020. 60%
- Jair Bolsonaro will still be President of Brazil on January 1, 2020. 90%
- Current Colorado governor John Hickenlooper will announce that he is running for president in 2019. 70%
- Brett Kavanagh will not be impeached in 2019. 95%
- Roe vs. Wade will not be overturned in substance in 2019, despite the conservative direction of the Supreme Court. 90%
- Public hullabaloo notwithstanding, Facebook will have more active monthly users on January 1, 2020 than it does now. 80%
- Trump’s approval rating will be below 45% on January 1, 2020 (538). 80%
- Trump’s approval rating will NOT be below 40% on January 1, 2020. 60%
- The S&P 500 will be higher at year-end 2019 than it is at the beginning of the year. 60%
- The S&P 500 index will NOT be more than 20% lower than it is at the beginning of the year. 70%
- This blog will have at least 12 posts in 2019. 80%
- It will have more traffic in 2019 than in 2018. 60%
- I will launch my new tech policy blog in 2019. 90%
- My tech law policy blog will feature at least 12 posts in 2019. 75%.
- My new tech policy blog will have more traffic than this blog in 2019. 50%.
- My law firm blog will feature at least 6 posts in 2019. 60%.
- My law firm will still have only two full-time attorneys as of January 1, 2020. 80%.
- At least one other attorney will work at least 50 hours for our firm in 2019. 50%
- I will win at least one race in 2019. 60%
- I will finish on the masters podium in the majority of races I run in 2019. 80%
- I will finish at least one ultramarathon in 2019. 50%
- I will get at least one lifetime PR in one of the following distances: 10k, half marathon, or marathon. 50%
- I will run faster than a 2:20 800m in 2019. 60%
- I will NOT run faster than 2:15 in the 800m in 2019. 70%
- I will run NOT faster than 17:30 in a 5k this year 70%
- I will finish on the masters’ podium at the Pikes Peak Ascent. 50%
- I will skimo at least once in 2019. 70%
- I will buy skimo gear in 2019. 50%
- I will not drink alcohol in 2019. 90%
- I will finish at least one law review article in 2019. 50%
- I will publish at least 2 articles in publications other than my own blogs in 2019. 60%
- I will be capable of having at least one conversation that lasts a minute or longer in Japanese when I travel there in March. 50%
Sports and Trivia
- FC Barcelona will win La Liga in 2019. 80%
- Real Madrid will NOT win the champions league in 2019. 90%
- Alabama will win the NCAA football championship. 60%
- Duke will NOT win the NCAA basketball championship. 70%
- The Golden State Warriors will win the NBA championship. 60%
- The Denver Nuggets will make the playoffs this year. 95%
- The Denver Nuggets will win at least one playoff series this year. 50%
- The New England Patriots will NOT win the Super Bowl. 80%
- There will NOT be more than 20 new tiny houses built in Salida in 2019, despite the various announcements of proposed tiny home communities. 80%